A VIEW OF THE WEEK: The fuel mafia could come knocking next week

2026-03-27 - 06:50

Your neighbourhood petrol station is hardly the ideal place for a first date. It doesn’t offer much in the way of entertainment besides the rocking of taxis to try to get as much fuel as possible in and the occasional awkwardness when a card declines. And while it may be a peaceful place, free of constant drama, that could soon change when cars line up next week to fill up their tanks ahead of a massive price increase. We have largely been sheltered from the gas Armageddon that the world has faced since the US and Israel bombed Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said this week that “non-hostile vessels” can travel through the Strait, and minerals minister Gwede Mantashe claimed ships destined for SA are passing through the passage without interruption. We also import most of our fuel from Africa, not the Middle East. And yet the West’s fuel-induced cough will still give us the flu. We will still have high prices because of the global oil price, and criminals will be quick to take advantage. Is there enough fuel ... for you Recent fuel rationing at garages on the Garden Route has sparked concerns that, even if the government assures us there is enough fuel, there may not be. Farmers claim there is a shortage; the government claims there is not. The truth may lie in the middle: delivery. If delivery becomes a deliberate choke point, farmers will see supply dry up even if there is enough oil in the barrel. Mafias, from small petrol station owners to larger distributors, may fiddle with the “available stock” they can deliver to not only prioritise higher-paying customers but also to wait until the new wave of prices crashes upon us. The fuel will still be there next Wednesday. It will look and smell the same, but the price will be far higher. The explanation you will get from the garage, if you haven’t already, is that a deliberate rationing of fuel is necessary so more customers can get fuel. They will argue they need to keep a “minimum reserve until they get new stock”. This may seem reasonable, charitable, and good business, but the station survives, and will even thrive, if it can later sell the petrol it bought at a lower price for a much higher one before its more costly stock comes in. ALSO READ: A VIEW OF THE WEEK: Approaching fuel shedding could drive SA to a failed state Black market Fuel shortages also drive panic and increase black-market trade. Australia, like many countries, had seen mass storage of fuel by farmers. This week, Sri Lanka conducted raids to ensure that people were not illegally stockpiling fuel for resale. It is a problem worldwide, as fuel hits the black market at alarming rates. It is legal to stockpile fuel in South Africa, but only within limits (like 40 litres of petrol in Johannesburg and 200 litres in Ekurhuleni) and in approved containers. The problem comes when these are ignored, limits are exceeded, and desperation drives motorists to buy cheaper fuel in plastic bottles. Will we see a repeat of Covid-19 shutdown lawlessness? There is legislation to stop all this, but it is driven by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy and the Competition Commission, and is often only investigated if they smell a rat. Customers cannot simply ask a petrol station or distributor for transparency about how much is being kept, or whether a black-market seller is acting responsibly and within their allotment. But will there be political will for enforcement? Will the industry watchdogs bark to protect citizens from exploitation? Or will we soon see the resurfacing of the fuel mafias, like the existing construction, mining, minerals, and other cartels that already run amok? The politicians are too busy canvassing for their elective conferences or settling scores. Minds are all focused on positions and the elections later this year, not on safeguarding citizens and businesses that will be hit hardest by the fuel increases. Next week’s first wave of hikes will no doubt see taxi fares go up, food prices increase with production costs, inflation rise, and higher security costs that affect law enforcement. But it could also carry a dangerous tide that only vigilant politicians, government officials, commissioners, and inspectors can stem. NOW READ: Deep-routed problems: The taxi industry ceasefire that leaves us all in danger