Coffee prices to ease in 2026 but remain elevated as demand stays strong

2026-03-04 - 15:53

Coffee is part of many adults’ daily routine, with many being able to ‘wake up’ after their first cup. However, being able to consume this hot beverage daily does not come cheap. In today’s economy, coffee is a luxury, with a decent cup of coffee costing approximately R50, while a 200g bottle, on sale, can cost more than R150 and last only a month. Mbulelo Mashilo, brand manager at Douwe Egberts, said the prices of coffee, both global and local, continue to rise, but people still include this form of caffeine in their monthly budgets. ALSO READ: Is coffee a luxury? Jacobs Coffee explains the price increase Prices to decline in 2026 According to Just2Trade, the World Bank projects coffee prices this year will stabilise at structurally higher levels than between 2020 and 2023, reflecting climate risks and supply constraints. “Prices should stabilise at structurally higher levels as climate adaptation investments improve resilience,” said the international online brokerage company. “New plantations, particularly Robusta in Brazil’s warmer regions, will increase supply but require three to four years to reach full production.” In 2025, coffee prices increase significantly due to supply shortages and weather concerns. In February last year, cocoa was trading at $8 329.66 per ton. In December 2024, cocoa prices rose 50% in one month, reaching an all-time high. Coffee prices increased significantly in 2025 “The global coffee industry has faced sustained volatility in recent years, with climate change in key production regions reducing yields and pushing up prices, while geopolitical tensions continue to drive fluctuations across global supply chains,” he said. “In South Africa, however, coffee consumption is proving resilient. Despite ongoing cost-of-living pressures, people continue to prioritise quality, adjusting how they consume coffee rather than abandoning it altogether.” Mashilo added that South African coffee lovers continue to opt for premium coffee products, which are proving more resilient and growing even amid a challenging economic environment. ALSO READ: What is brewing in SA when it comes to coffee? Instant coffee remains most loved He noted that the country’s coffee culture is catching up to its European and other first-world counterparts, with local taste profiles evolving toward café-style quality. “Instant coffee remains the largest segment in the South African market, as its convenience and functional benefits continue to meet the needs of the majority of consumers, even as interest in premium and convenient formats grows,” said Mashilo. “This is where the intersection between quality and convenience becomes most apparent. As lifestyles become faster-paced, consumers are selecting formats that deliver an authentic coffee experience while fitting seamlessly into daily routines.” Ready-to-drink and capsule formats He highlighted that ready-to-drink and capsule formats are performing particularly well. “As of December 2025, volumes in the ready-to-drink category are up more than 15%. Consumers want coffee that tastes authentic, but they also want accessibility – whether that’s on the go, during a commute, or at home with minimal preparation.” Referencing Statista, he said the country’s coffee market is expected to grow by approximately 7.2% annually between 2024 and 2028, driven by increased at-home consumption and rising demand for premium yet convenient options. Looking ahead to 2026, Mashilo said the market outlook remains positive, and price sensitivity is expected to persist. “Consumers are still under pressure, which is why value-driven options like refill pouches are gaining traction.” NOW READ: Rooibos, tea or coffee? What South Africans like to drink