‘Worrying trends’: Support for democracy declines sharply ahead of local elections

2026-03-25 - 03:30

A growing number of South Africans have expressed dissatisfaction with democracy as the country heads to the voting polls for the local government elections later this year. This is according to the latest Voter Participation Survey conducted by the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) and commissioned by the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC). Participants in the survey were aged 16 years or older and lived in private households across all nine provinces. Survey reveals declining support for democracy According to the study released on Tuesday, 24 March, research indicates a notable decline in support for democracy as the preferred system of governance. In stark contrast to the 67% reported in the mid-2000s, 2025-26 data show that only about 36% of South Africans prefer democracy over other kinds of government. Meanwhile, 26% are now open to non-democratic alternatives, up from about 10% in the mid-2000s, and 34% believe it does not matter what kind of government they have, up from around 15% in the same period. Confidence in the country’s direction weakens In addition to these figures, only 12% of adults who support democratic values think that the country is going in the right direction, compared to 71% in 2004. During the presentation of the survey, the HSRC’s Dr Ngqapheli Mchunu said the low numbers of residents in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) who believe it is the duty of all citizens to vote are worrying. Mchunu said that while the Eastern Cape and Limpopo ranked quite high among provinces with a sharp decline in this duty, there has been a “significant decline” in Gauteng. “So much so that Gauteng is the only province out of all our provinces that did not have a 50% plus recognition of duty to vote by citizens. It is down to 47%, 30% less than Mpumalanga, which is at 74% – the highest evaluation or ranking,” he said. “Considering the importance of the province of Gauteng in terms of South Africa’s economy, along with KZN, these are, of course, worrying trends which need to be observed quite carefully.” Watch the full IEC Research Seminar here: Belief in the power of voting declines The study also indicated a decline in the number of people who believe their vote makes a difference. In 2004, 74% saw value in their vote, but that figure has now gone down to less than 30%. This means more than 70% of citizens now believe that their vote actually doesn’t make a difference, Mchunu said. There is also a growing number of voters who are more likely to abstain, meaning less foot traffic at the polls. “Citizens in Gauteng are going to be the most likely to abstain if they are disappointed in their political parties.” Even so, regular voters are more likely to remain loyal and give the party they voted for a second chance, rather than switching votes or not voting at all. The study also indicated that only 17% of citizens are interested in casting their vote in the 2026 elections, while 37% showed slight interest, 21% showed a lack of interest, and 24% showed no interest at all. The remaining 1% were unable to choose. Weight of the study’s findings Speaking at the seminar, IEC CEO Sy Mamabolo emphasised the importance of the study. He noted that it enables the commission to better understand the views of citizens and plan for “effective election administration”. Mamabolo said it also helps to seamlessly execute electoral operations across the country. “This survey forms part of ongoing research that the commission has undertaken since the early 2000s to take a deep and reflective view of the attitudes within our democratic society,” he said. “The findings of this survey enable the commission to design and implement targeted interventions that contribute to creating conditions conducive to free and fair elections.” The CEO called on all sectors of society to join the IEC in promoting democratic values and implementing civic education campaigns that demonstrate tangible benefits.